How signals work

GDP growth

• Warning sign

  We show a warning when the economy shrinks for two quarters in a row.

• Warning sign

  We show a warning when the economy shrank over the latest quarter.

• Good sign

  We show a good sign when growth is at least 0.4%.

• Neutral

  We show neutral when the economy did not grow or shrink this quarter.

• Neutral

  We show neutral when the economy is growing, but by less than 0.4%.

Inflation (CPI)

If inflation is more than 1 point away from 2%, the Bank of England's Governor must write to the Chancellor to explain why.

• Warning sign

  We show a warning when prices are lower than a year ago. Falling prices are rare in the UK.

• Good sign

  We show a good sign when inflation is within 1 percentage point of the 2% target.

• Neutral

  We show neutral when inflation is more than 1 percentage point above the 2% target, but has fallen by more than 0.2 percentage points over 3 months.

• Warning sign

  We show a warning when inflation is more than 1 percentage point above the 2% target and has not fallen over the last 3 months.

• Neutral

  We show neutral when inflation is more than 1 percentage point below the 2% target.

Unemployment rate

• Warning sign

  We show a warning when unemployment is at least 0.5 percentage points above the usual level over the previous 10 years. A warning stays until 2 later releases are calmer.

• Warning sign

  We show a warning when unemployment has risen by at least 0.3 percentage points over 3 months and the rate is not already above the typical level. The same size of fall is a good sign.

• Good sign

  We show a good sign when unemployment is at least 0.5 percentage points below the usual level over the previous 10 years.

• Good sign

  We show a good sign when unemployment has fallen by at least 0.3 percentage points over 3 months and the rate is not already above the typical level.

• Neutral

  We show neutral when unemployment is within 0.5 percentage points of the usual level over the previous 10 years and has moved by less than 0.3 percentage points over 3 months.

Pay growth after inflation

• Good sign

  We show a good sign when average pay, after inflation, is rising by at least 1%.

• Warning sign

  We show a warning when average pay is rising more slowly than prices.

• Neutral

  We show neutral when average pay is rising at the same pace as prices.

• Neutral

  We show neutral when average pay is ahead of prices, but by less than 1%.

Bank Rate

Bank Rate is always neutral: a higher rate helps savers and costs borrowers.

• Neutral

  We show this as neutral. Bank Rate is lower than a year ago, so loans tend to be cheaper and savings rates lower.

• Neutral

  We show this as neutral. Bank Rate is higher than a year ago, so loans tend to be dearer and savings rates better.

• Neutral

  We show this as neutral. Bank Rate is about the same as a year ago.

Potential redundancies

These are plans employers report, not jobs already lost. The Insolvency Service has not fully checked them, and they can change.

• Warning sign

  We show a warning when this month is at least 1.75 times a typical month. A typical month is the middle value of the previous 24 months. The warning stays until 2 later months are calmer.

• Good sign

  We show a good sign when a typical month is at least 1.75 times this one. A typical month is the middle value of the previous 24 months. A good sign has to last for 2 releases.

• Good sign

  We show a good sign when the average of the last 3 months is at least 20% below the 12 months before those. A good sign has to last for 2 releases.

• Warning sign

  We show a warning when the average of the last 3 months is at least 20% above the 12 months before those. A warning stays until 2 later months are calmer.

• Neutral

  We show neutral when the average of the last 3 months is within 20% of the 12 months before those.

Company insolvencies

• Good sign

  We show a good sign when the insolvency rate is down by at least 2 per 10,000 companies on a year ago. The count can rise just because there are more companies.

• Warning sign

  We show a warning when the insolvency rate is up by at least 2 per 10,000 companies on a year ago. The signal uses the rate.

• Neutral

  We show neutral when the insolvency rate has moved by less than 2 per 10,000 companies on a year ago.

Job vacancies

• Warning sign

  We show a warning when vacancies are at least 10% below the usual level over the previous 10 years. A warning stays until 2 later releases are calmer.

• Warning sign

  We show a warning when vacancies are down by more than 3% over 3 months. This does not require the level to be low. A rise of the same size is a good sign when the level is not already low.

• Good sign

  We show a good sign when vacancies are at least 10% above the usual level over the previous 10 years.

• Good sign

  We show a good sign when vacancies are up by more than 3% over 3 months and the level is not already low. A fall of the same size is a warning.

• Neutral

  We show neutral when vacancies are within 10% of the usual level over the previous 10 years and have moved by 3% or less over 3 months.

Government borrowing

• Good sign

  We show a good sign when borrowing so far this financial year is at least 5% below the same point last year.

• Warning sign

  We show a warning when borrowing so far this financial year is at least 5% above the same point last year.

• Neutral

  We show neutral when borrowing so far this financial year is within 5% of the same point last year.

House prices

• Warning sign

  We show a warning when house prices are down by more than 5% on a year ago. A fast fall can strain owners and lenders.

• Neutral

  We show neutral unless prices are falling by more than 5% a year. Rising prices help owners and make it harder for first-time buyers.